Peering through the crystal ball that sits on my desk provided some revealing indications of where the enterprise and handheld voice market was headed this year. And NO, the crystal ball isn’t for sale, but, you can keep reading TheTelecomBlog.com !
Apple will continue their dominance in the market place throughout 2010. Google will gain significant market share. RIM will crack.
Apple has gained, in 3 short years, a significant market share in the handheld market. Google will gain a similar level of market share in the next 3 years. The share will be taken from RIM, Palm, Nokia and Microsoft. RIM won’t fair very well this year, you can read my thoughts on that from a post I did a few days ago titled: Is the Blackberry RIM becoming the Cracked-Berry RIM ?
Winners: Apple, Google.
Losers: RIM and Microsoft
There will be considerable competition for Nortel’s market share
This market has become quite unsettled in the last 12 months (ever since Nortel filed for bankruptcy), and will become even more so over the next 12 months. Every major competitor in this space will be aggressively pursuing Nortel’s former customer base. That includes both end users and dealers. We have already seen some very aggressive marketing and re-positioning over the last 12 months, and the next year will prove even more competitive as Cisco, NEC, Toshiba, Avaya, Mitel, ShoreTel … go after the former Nortel base. Can Avaya hang onto Nortel’s former customer base ? It depends on their offering which will become public knowledge on January 19th, but there’s nothing stopping the other players like Cisco or Mitel from offering a similar discount to match Avaya’s offer.
Winners: Avaya, Cisco and Mitel.
Losers: All share will come from the former Nortel
Microsoft will fall into voice oblivion (if they haven’t already)
Microsoft’s Response Point (check out this post from a few months ago) never gained any significant market traction in the SMB space, and OCS, which at one time was viewed as a competitive threat, seems to be expensive and way too complex to set-up requiring a significant number of servers. The product is just not gaining any market traction, at least not what you would expect from a powerhouse player like Microsoft.
Microsoft’s Windows Mobile OS is also a near dead product. Microsoft introduced their first handheld device over 10 years ago (Windows CE). They have had a considerable amount of time to succeed in this space and haven’t. Why not ?
Microsoft’s solution if they wish to succeed in the enterprise voice and Smartphone market is to make some acquisitions. They could have purchased Nortel or 3COM. The Nortel acquisition would have made sense for Microsoft considering their already existing relationship. But, they didn’t. ShoreTel would be another attractive option as well.
At this point they have also lost the handheld / SmartPhone market, and in order to make a comeback they could acquire Palm or RIM.
Microsoft needs a simple solution that will combine their desktop, handheld, phone, cloud and consumer electronic experience. They have missed the boat on all fronts. Will 2010 be the year Microsoft makes a come back ?
Losers: Microsoft
HP will make a play for the voice market. They have a VERY high chance of success.
HP purchased 3COM in the latter part of 2010. While most pundits suggested this would help them compete against Cisco in the data space, it could also help them considerably in the voice space as well.
Does HP want to play in the voice space ? Absolutely. Voice is a critical missing piece for HP. And with the 3COM acquisition they now have the technology to build a proper voice play. And I would put their chances of success as VERY high.
Winners: HP
Is Google becoming too dominant ?
Yes they are. And this is the year that people, and in turn the governments that watch for and control monopoly power start questioning their market dominance. I wrote a post about this a few weeks ago so you can read more here, and here … 2010 will be a tipping point for Google, and once the governments around the world start noticing, commenting and taking action it will force Google into technical submission, similar to the submission Microsoft faced for many years. The ultimate effect will stymie Google’s growth and creative trajectory.
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Written by: Jeff Wiener. www.digitcom.ca. Follow TheTelecomBlog.com by: RSS, Twitter, Identi.ca, or Friendfeed
{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }
It’s been very cold here in the Eastern United States, leaving many of us pinching our wallets when it comes time to pay the utilities. Thankfully I did have a few AA batteries left lying around for my magic 8 ball so I thought I would throw up a response (or two).
Apple will continue their dominance in the market
There’s no doubt that Apple makes some great products but I don’t think we’ll be using the word ‘dominate’ for very long with respect to Apple. Assuming we’re talking about the Smart Phone market I think you’ll see Android grab significant market share over the next 12 months. Apple is well known for their marketing savvy has already started leaking details about iPhone 4 to try and stem the Android onslaught that all but started. However, did you notice what’s being advertised on the Google homepage?
There will be considerable competition for Nortel’s market share
A number of Nortel competitors have already experienced the fierce loyalty of Nortel customers. Early upgrade/migration programs and incentives from competitors failed miserably and were summarily rejected by the vast majority Nortel customers. Unless Avaya makes some very unfavorable moves on January 19th look for the vast majority of Nortel customers to stay the course with Avaya.
Microsoft will fall into voice oblivion (if they haven’t already)
While Microsoft definitely has some issues to contend with they certainly aren’t going to fall into voice oblivion. While their OCS solution is definitely not on the cheap side it’s by far one of the best solutions out there. They will need to re-gear themselves moving forward and as always they MUST work on their licensing models. What’s the point of pricing everything where no one can afford the solution?
HP will make a play for the voice market. They have a VERY high chance of success.
Looks like the batteries in my magic 8 ball just died… I’m not totally up to speed on 3COM and their acquisition of NBX but did 3COM really improve the NBX product portfolio? Will HP really commit the $$$ to reach and development in order to play in any vertical above SOHO?
Is Google becoming too dominant ?
Let me ask a follow-up question. Why as a consumer would I care if Google is becoming too dominant? Let’s put aside the images of the evil Empire in Star Wars (which not long ago was Microsoft) and look at it objectively. It’s no argument that Google is no longer just a web search or advertising company. They have expanded themselves into numerous areas and have been very successful. I personally enjoy Google Search, Google Reader, Google News, Google GMail, Google Adsense and now recently a Motorola Droid based on the Google Android 2.0 Operating System. I am much more concerned about the dwindling cellular and cable companies and their legion of lobbyists and laywers than I am about Google.
Just a few rambling thoughts… keep up the good work Jeff!
Mike
Thanks for taking the time to reply to this post Michael.
Let’s address the Google monopoly issue.
I am a huge Google fan. I use their products every day. Extensively. And Google is a marketing and sales machine.
There are anti-monopoly laws in place for a reason though, and that is to ensure that no one firm has an over-bearing presence or control in the market. Microsoft was called to task for many years because of their dominance in the PC industry, and the years of government and anti-monopoly meetings both in the EU and USA took their toll on Microsoft. Google is reaching the same levels that Microsoft was at in the mid 1990’s with their dominance in the internet “cloud” market. Number 1 in search. Number 1 in on-line ads. Number 1 in on-line video. And the list continues.
But, where does it stop. YES, the products are amazing. But, we need to make sure that no single firm has too much control over an industry and Google is reaching those levels. Maybe not yet, but, we’re getting there.