Only 1 of Canada’s 3 new cell providers will make it past year 1. Who ? Dave, Public Mobile, or Wind Mobile ?

by Jeff Wiener on October 23, 2009

winnerThe other day I made a prediction: Two of the three companies entering the Canadian cell phone market would fail, either before launch, or within a year of launching. I may be wrong. I’d like to be wrong because having solid competition for the big three will result in a better experience for the customers.

That being said – here are my predictions:

FAIL:
One of the cell companies will have trouble launching. Their technology will be rife with problems, which in turn will strain their customer service department with phone calls. A negative sentiment will set-in fairly quickly – they won’t make it past the one year mark.
Which of the 3 will this be? Public Mobile.

FAIL:
One of the cell companies will launch successfully, but, they will struggle to differentiate themselves from the competition and will find it difficult to fund the expansion beyond the first year. Plans won’t materialize as expected, and they will be forced to sell the business at a discounted price to one of the incumbents.
Which of the 3 will this be? Dave Wireless
Dave will get a really late start which will make it even more difficult for them to break into the market.

Canada’s fourth national carrier:
One of the cell companies will launch successfully, will understand the marketing, customer service, and pricing model, and will become a formidable competitive force in the Canadian cellular marketplace.
Which of the 3 will this be? Wind Mobile (Globalive)

Am I right ? Who knows. It really is a guess, but, we’ll wait and see. I sure hope they all do well – at least well enough to scare the incumbents into providing a more competitive product and better service offering.

Update: Wind Mobile received Industry Canada approval on December 18th to officially launch. Read more here.

Written by: Jeff Wiener. www.digitcom.ca. Follow TheTelecomBlog.com by: RSS, Twitter, Identi.ca, or Friendfeed

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{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }

Stan October 23, 2009 at 1:46 pm

Regarding your prediction on DAVE, the spectrum they purchased was set aside for new entrants. Doesn’t this mean they can’t sell to an incumbent for 5 years after launch? Seems like this won’t be the (discounted) exit strategy that you’re suggesting, at least not after year 1. Or do I have it wrong?

Jeff Wiener October 23, 2009 at 3:51 pm

Stan – You are probably right. Let me look this up and make the correction.

Jeff

Jeff Wiener October 25, 2009 at 10:27 pm

Stan – I looked it up. Looks like you have it right. They can’t sell to an incumbent for 5 years.

Jeff

Cyndy March 24, 2010 at 6:44 pm

I heard verizon is coming to Canada. Is this true, and if so, when? My dream is that one of these companies come and offer to buy out our contracts if we sign with them. I am so sick of Bell, but I am stuck in a contract, nobody else offers the 10-4 service my husband uses. We would gladly switched to no 10-4 if the price of roaming was good. I know this will probably not happen, but it is nice to dream.

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