Android to Have 45 Percent of Market Share by 2016?

by Jordan Richardson on April 4, 2011

It was just last week that research firm IDC announced that Google’s Android would achieve 45.4 percent of the wireless market share by 2015. Now another firm, ABI Research, says that Android will reach 45 percent of market share by 2016.

Across the industry, some 302 million smart phones shipped last year. That’s an upswing of 71 percent over the previous year’s shipment levels. Out of those phones, 69 million of them were Google Android phones.

Apple’s iOS held some 15 percent of the market in 2010 and, according to ABI Research, is expected to continue moderate growth. With new products sweeping into the market, Apple should achieve 19 percent of market share by the same 2016 dateline.

As for Waterloo’s Research In Motion, ABI Research predicts a modest loss of ground. With 16 percent of the market share currently in the bank, ABI’s digits show RIM holding on to 14 percent. According to the research, RIM’s recent slight loss of share won’t translate to reduced shipments in the short term. They can and will rest comfortably in their niche for the time being, but subsequent growth in the sector will threaten their market share.

The new entrants factor in as well. ABI Research suggests that Windows Phone 7 and Samsung’s Bada will continue to hone in on territory held by mid-to-low range sets.

“With 4 million units shipped in 2010 (amounting to a 1.5 percent market share), Bada has taken off very well, very fast,” senior analyst Michael Morgan says. “Bada may reach 10 percent market share by 2016. Windows Phone 7, on the other hand, which shipped in two million handsets in Q4 2010, will have to find incredible success through its Nokia channel to take more than 7 percent of the market by 2016.”

ABI Research provides quarterly and annual data related to the smart phone market. They also track industry trends and monitor shipments the world over to determine the direction of the international industry.

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